Year-over-year procurement cost changes reveal which utilities are exposed to spot market volatility and which are insulated by fixed-price contracts. When gas prices rise sharply — as in 2021, 2022, and 2025 — utilities with high spot exposure show large cost increases. Utilities with fixed-price contracts set before the price spike show little or no change. The YoY data makes this exposure visible in real time.
2009 was the most dramatic year in the dataset — an average decline of $4.22/MMBtu as the shale gas revolution collapsed Henry Hub prices. 211 of 224 operators saw costs fall. The handful that saw increases had locked in long-term fixed contracts at 2008 peak prices — the first evidence of the fixed price ≠ cheap price dynamic that the Supply Contract Pricing analysis quantifies.
2021 and 2022 were the stress tests. The average increase of $2.01/MMBtu in 2021 (Winter Storm Uri) and $2.27/MMBtu in 2022 (Ukraine war) affected nearly every spot-exposed utility simultaneously. The few operators that saw flat or declining costs in those years — utilities with long-term fixed contracts set before 2021 — demonstrate the value of procurement strategy over market timing.
2025 shows a renewed upward pressure — average increase of $0.97/MMBtu with 129 of 142 operators seeing higher costs. This is not Uri-level stress, but it is a sustained rise from the 2023–2024 lows that will appear in rate case fuel cost filings throughout 2026.
| Utility | St | Prior Year ($/MMBtu) | Current Year ($/MMBtu) | Change ($/MMBtu) | Change (%) | Ann. Excess ($M) |
|---|
| Year | Value 1 | Value 2 |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | — | — |
| 2023 | — | — |