Tool 01 — Procurement Performance Monitor
Monthly natural gas actual procurement costs for Duke Energy Carolinas & Progress versus comparable NC/SC utilities, benchmarked against Henry Hub spot. Built from FERC Electric Quarterly Report data. January 2017 – December 2024. This analysis was filed as expert witness testimony before the North Carolina Utilities Commission.
Duke Avg Cost · 8yr
.15
/MMBtu · 2017–2024
Peer Avg Cost · 8yr
.81
/MMBtu · NC & SC utilities
Duke Premium Over Peers
+/bin/sh.34
/MMBtu avg · 54 of 96 months higher
Duke Basis Excess vs Peers
+/bin/sh.55
/MMBtu above HH · vs peers .39
May 2022 — Worst single month: Duke paid 5.37/MMBtu while peer utilities averaged .54/MMBtu — a .83/MMBtu overpayment in a single month. January 2018: Duke 3.17 vs peers .80 (+.37). These procurement failures directly translate to ratepayer cost recovery in future rate cases.
What this data measures
The values shown are Duke Energy's and peers' actual blended gas procurement costs derived from FERC Electric Quarterly Report filings — not spot market prices or national averages. This represents what ratepayers actually fund through fuel cost recovery mechanisms in rates. The Henry Hub series is the implied benchmark (Duke cost minus Duke basis).
Basis differential significance
Duke's average basis above Henry Hub (.95/MMBtu) exceeded the peer average (.39/MMBtu) in 67 of 96 months. This persistent basis premium reflects Duke's pipeline transportation cost exposure, supply contract structure, and geographic delivery point risk — all factors that are directly addressable in IRP and rate case proceedings.
Commission proceeding relevance
The /bin/sh.34/MMBtu average premium Duke paid above peers over 8 years represents a quantifiable ratepayer burden. Applied to Duke's annual gas burn (billions of MMBtu), the aggregate cost differential is material. This methodology — FERC EQR data benchmarked against regional peers — has been filed as formal expert witness testimony before the North Carolina Utilities Commission.
Methodology & Data Sources
Procurement cost data: Monthly actual gas procurement costs for Duke Energy Carolinas and Duke Energy Progress (combined) and comparable NC/SC utilities, derived from FERC Electric Quarterly Report (EQR) filings. Values expressed in $/MMBtu. Basis differential: Each utility's monthly procurement cost minus the implied Henry Hub spot price for that period — isolating the transportation, geographic, and procurement-strategy premium above the benchmark. Peer comparison group: Other investor-owned utilities operating in North Carolina and South Carolina subject to the same regional market conditions. Period: January 2017 through December 2024 (96 months). Commission use: This analysis was prepared and filed as formal expert witness testimony in a docketed proceeding before the North Carolina Utilities Commission involving Duke Energy's Consolidated Carbon Plan.
Dr. Ouattara provides formal expert witness testimony and commissioned research benchmarking utility gas procurement performance against regional peers using FERC EQR and commission filing data — formatted for direct submission to state utility commissions.